According to a report released this week by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates, the pandemic-driven surge in import cargo volume has finally subsided, and the monthly import cargo volume at the country’s major container ports has dropped below the 2 million TEU threshold and is expected to stay there for the majority of this spring.
“Ports have been stretched to their limits and beyond but are getting a break as consumer demand moderates amid continued inflation and high interest rates,” said NRF vice president for supply chain Jonathan Gold. “Consumers are still spending and volumes remain high, but we’re not seeing the congestion at the docks and ships waiting to unload that were widespread this time a year ago. It’s good to escape some of the pressure, but it’s important to use this time to address supply chain challenges that still need to be resolved like finalizing the West Coast port labor contract.”
In March 2020, as COVID struck, imports fell to a four-year low of 1.37 million twenty-foot or equivalent containers (TEU). By August of that year, imports had reached 2 million TEU. Up until this winter, the population was always over 2 million.
“After nearly three years of COVID-19’s impact on global trade and consumer demand, import patterns appear to be returning to what was normal prior to 2020,” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. “Nonetheless, as inflation eases and consumer spending returns, we project that growth will slowly return going into the second half of the year.”
In November, the most recent month for which complete data is available, U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.78 million TEU. That was down from October and November 2021 by 11.3% and 15.8%, respectively. The previous low point had been 1.87 million TEU in February 2021, the only month in more than two years to fall below 2 million TEU.
Ports have not yet released their December statistics, but according to Global Port Tracker, 1.88 million TEU, or 10.1% less than in the previous year, was shipped during the month. As a result, 2022’s annual total would be 25.7 million TEU, which is a decrease of 0.7% from the previous record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021, but up 0.7% from the first half of the year, when it consistently broke monthly records.
Retail sales are on track to meet NRF’s forecast of 6% to 8% growth over 2021 for both the full year and the holiday season when December’s sales figures are released next week, despite the slowdown in cargo.
1.91 million TEU, or 11.5% less than last year, is predicted for January. The forecast for February is 1.63 million TEU, which would be a 23% decrease from last year when backed-up cargo kept congested ports busy and would be the lowest since June 2020 when it was 1.61 million TEU. April is expected to be 1.94 million TEU, down 14.5% from last year; May will be 2 million TEU, down 16.2%; and March will be 1.75 million TEU, down 25.5%.
News source: furnituretoday.com
